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< Back Commentary: Washington’s Decision to “Normalize” Relations with Cuba..." An economic commentary on the article "Washington’s Decision to “Normalize” Relations with Cuba: Impede China’s Growing Influence in Latin America" Date the commentary was written: 21/ 09 /2016 Read the original article on Global Research : " Washington’s Decision to “Normalize” Relations with Cuba: Impede China’s Growing Influence in Latin America?" by Birsen Filip - 28.08.2016 The article under consideration is about the possible lifting of the Cuban embargo imposed by the American Government in 1936. The idea of removing this historic embargo has been introduced recently and is in the process of becoming a reality due to Barrack Obama. Barrack Obama, the present president of the United States according to the article, shocked the world by officially reestablishing diplomatic relations with Cuba and furthermore slowly lifting the historical embargo. However, this article explores the embargo lifting as a means of the USA to impede China’s International Market power growth in Latin America in light of the recent trade deal between China and Cuba. In this commentary, I shall be exploring the probable effects of lifting the embargo, with respect to the International Market and the Cuban economy. According to the article, it can be deduced that the USA is trying to prevent China from becoming a “monopoly” in the International Market. An embargo is a government order that restricts commerce or exchange with a specified country or the exchange of specific goods. An embargo is usually created as a result of unfavorable political or economic circumstances between nations. The restriction looks to isolate the country and create difficulties for its governing body, forcing it to act on the underlying issue. [1] In the case of the US embargo on Cuba, it is due to the relation Cuba was having with Communist powers. The Cuban embargo majorly affected the tourism in Cuba, sugar production, many other agricultural sectors and cigar firms. Figure 1: Current agricultural production in the Cuban economy As illustrated on the graph above, as the embargo technically prohibits Cuba from trading internationally (as the USA “penalizes” other countries that trade with Cuba) their agricultural goods although having an advantage of the lower price in comparison to the world price, Cuba cannot exploit that advantage. However, if the embargo is to be lifted Cuba would benefit greatly as they can produce many agricultural goods at a lower price than most countries and furthermore specialize in agricultural goods to even greatly increase their production. This would lead to an increase in jobs, increase in GDP and incomes in Cuba. Due to the embargo many goods and services have to be produced domestically as Cuba cannot benefit from international trade. Due to the production of a vast array of goods and services domestically Cuba cannot efficiently produce all goods and services, and the quality is quite low. For instance, it is not efficient for Cuba to produce heavy duty farming machines, whereas China having a comparative advantage in heavy duty machines can effectively produce them. A country has a comparative advantage in producing a product when it has the lowest opportunity cost for producing the product. Figure 2: Electronics and technological devices Market in Cuba currently As illustrated in the diagram above, currently Cuba’s technological industry and many other industries are producing at a higher price than the World Price. This mainly due to lack of specialization. The people of Cuba are subjected to some high priced goods and services which are very low in quality. However, if the embargo is to be lifted Cubans would have access to the lower priced, higher quality goods and services from the international market. Due to the large diversification in goods and services produced domestically, the Cuban economy has not specialized in particular products, hence does not hold any significant comparative advantage in any good or service production when compared to most countries. As Cuba would be able to trade much easier in the international market, hence would have access to cheaper raw resources from Africa and Americas, cheaper labor from Asia and greater capital from Europe and North America. Figure 3: Effect of lifting the Embargo in the Cuban Economy As shown on the diagram above, the lifting of the embargo would be highly beneficial for the Cuban economy. Aggregate demand and supply would increase. The total output of the economy increases from Y1 to Y2. The average price level of goods and services increases, but this increase is actually quite beneficial for Cuba as incomes would increase and producers make larger profits. The lack of specialization due to the embargo hinders the growth of the Cuban economy. However with the lifting of the embargo, this would increase economic activity and boost economic growth in Cuba. [1] http://www.investopedia.com/ Previous Next

< Back Commentary: Brexit could lead to recession, says Bank of England An economic commentary on the article "Brexit could lead to recession, says Bank of England" Date the commentary was written: 24/ 05 /2016 Read the original article on the guardian: Brexit could lead to recession, says Bank of England by Katie Allen - 12/05/2016 The article under consideration is about multiple predicted implications that would occur if Britain decides to the leave the EU (Brexit) according to the Bank of England. The main macroeconomic aspects of this article which would be featured in this commentary are the claims of recession, inflation, unemployment and economic growth. The idea of Britain leaving the EU (European Union) has brought about the question of its economic justification. Economically, there is a lot of ambiguity, however this article claims that a Brexit would not be economically justified for Britain. The greatest argument made in this article is that of recession. Recession is the significant decline of economic activity in an economy lasting longer than two successive quarters. The recession in turn would be caused by a combination of inflation and unemployment. Inflation simply refers to the persistent increase in the average price level of goods and services in an economy over a period of time (12 months). Unemployment refers to people of working age, able, willingly and actively looking for a job but do not have one. According to the Bank of England in this article, all of this would occur if Britain leaves the EU. Hence all of the macroeconomic objectives of England would not be met (including a current account surplus, as it would be more expensive for Britain to trade with EU counties and the US). Also, since there is an increase in unemployment and inflation, stagflation would also be occurring. Unemployment is said to increase. This is mainly due to an increase in the cost of production of firms. Without the EU, many sectors in the British economy would not have subsidies and would have to pay more taxes. The price of most raw materials would increase, transportation cost would also increase and trade between the EU and Britain would be highly disadvantageous to Britain as the EU would impose high tariffs. The labor market diagram below shows the effects. Figure 1 As illustrated on the diagram. Due to the higher cost of productions, firms in Britain would be forced to ‘let go’ their labor force. Hence there is a decrease in the aggregate demand for labor. This causes natural unemployment. The aggregate demand of labor shifts to the left, due to the decrease in demand for labor. British goods would become expensive and would lose international competitiveness. Hence, sales would be lower, the pound would lose its value and Britain would gradually have a large deficit on their balance of payments. GDP would decrease, hence economic activity also decreases and furthermore a decrease in economic growth. Inflation is also claimed to increase above the target rate of 2%. This inflation would most probably be a cost push inflation. This type of inflation refers to the increase in cost of production in many firms, hence the average price level of goods and services generally increases. The effect is illustrated on the diagram below; Figure 2 As shown on the diagram, an increase in cost of production causes the short run aggregate supply curve to shift to the left, further on increasing the inflation and decreasing the real GDP. This creates excesses demand and simply increases the value of inflation. So it may appear that the Brexit is a recipe for a recession. So is this fate inevitable? No, there is a simple solution for Britain to have a strong economy without these problems if they are to leave the EU. The British Government can start large scale infrastructure developments in Britain, in order to prevent the unemployment caused by the Brexit. The British government may also have to impose high tariffs on goods and services offered by the EU only, hence not only does this generate money for Britain but it also allows domestic firms to thrive which would increase employment, GDP, economic growth and would strengthen the pound. The psychological effect of Brexit may also aid in higher productivity of workers and higher consumption of locally made goods and services instead of imported commodities. The balance of payments would also improve to a more favorable figure (surplus or surplus leaning). The Bank of England can also increase key interest rates, to “increase” the value of the pound. Inflation can also be less severe if the Bank of England increases the interest rates and subsidizes important goods and services in the country. An increase in the interest rates would increase the general public’s marginal propensity to save, hence aggregate demand would decrease and relative to the very slow cost push inflation, the inflation would be barely “felt” by the economy. The British government must also loosen its controls in the banking industry as this would then allow Banks in EU to easily invest or even relocate to Britain because of lower constrains from a governing body. Previous Next

< Back Fixed Deposits Offers in Ghana A simple directory that shows Fixed Deposit offers in Ghana Github: https://github.com/seanxjohn/fixed_deposit_options_gh Future Works: Comparing and Assessing the Competitiveness of rates Assessing the Credit worthiness of firms Developing a dynamic risk-adjusted matrix of the offers Developing a Fixed Deposit calculator targeted to non- financially literate clients Develop a dynamic "Composite Fixed Deposit Instrument" based on current averages and interpolations Develop a dynamic yield curve (depicting expectations theory) based on the evolution of fixed deposit rates Previous Next

< Back Dynamic view of Ghana's Insurance Industry Work in progress Previous Next

< Back Dynamic Forestry and Agricultural Summary of ECOWAS states Work in progress Previous Next

< Back Snapshot Macroeconomic Summary of ECOWAS States: 2022 As at the end of 2022, this is was the macroeconomic status of each ECOWAS state *All data is in current US dollars. Sources: World Bank IMF Trading Economics Previous Next

< Back Data Visualization of the Dynamic Efficiency of Oil and Gas Production in Ghana A comprehensive tool for understanding the Real-time Efficiency of Oil and Gas production in Ghana https://akweix.shinyapps.io/trial_app/ Welcome to my R Shiny web app, the "Data Visualization of the Dynamic Efficiency of Oil and Gas Production in Ghana.” This web app leverages a myriad of data science techniques, including interactive visualizations, machine learning, sentiment analysis, natural language processing, data analytic tools and web scraping, to provide real-time, comprehensive analysis of Ghana’s oil and gas sector. The goal is to enhance information efficiency, market efficiency, and resource management efficiency, making it a valuable tool for practitioners, academics, and policymakers alike. The application is primarily centred on Ghana, especially regarding the visualizations. However, the data analytic tools developed can be applied to all markets and regions. Additionally, despite the application presenting key insights and tools that are applicable to both the Oil and Gas industry, greater emphasis was placed on Oil production due to its overall greater share of Ghana’s energy market and its more dynamic nature. anum_sean_data_science_final_report .pdf Download PDF • 2.66MB Previous Next

< Back Dynamic view of Ghana's Forestry Work in progress Previous Next

< Back Hollywood Boulevard to Wall Street: Futurism in Movies and Tech-Stock Prices This study investigates the relationship between the box office sales of futurism-themed movies and the performance of the tech stock index. This study investigates the relationship between the box office sales of futurism-themed movies and the performance of the tech stock index. Utilizing regression analysis across three models, the research reveals significant insights: Tech Movies and Tech Stock Index: A strong positive correlation was found between the box office sales of tech movies and the tech stock index, with an Adjusted R-squared value of 0.8263, indicating a substantial predictive power of tech movie sales on tech stock prices. Top 10 Box Office and Tech Stock Index: A broader analysis including the top 10 box office sales showed a positive but less pronounced impact on the tech stock index, suggesting that the influence of tech movies is more specific and potent. Tech Movies and General Market Index: Tech movie sales also positively correlate with the general market index, though the relationship is weaker compared to the tech-specific index. In essence, the findings suggest that futurism movies, particularly those in the tech genre, have a noticeable impact on tech stock prices, offering valuable insights into the interplay between behavioral bias, entertainment and financial markets econometrics_project .pdf Download PDF • 542KB Previous Next

< Back Smartphone App for University Students An all-purpose app for Ashesi students. Project from 2017 Life at Ashesi University, like any university, can be overwhelming and disorganized. To streamline this experience, I suggest the development of a versatile mobile app that centralizes various essential services, thereby aiding in effective time management for students. The university offers a range of services including student support, counseling, and tutoring. However, accessing these services often proves to be a cumbersome and time-consuming process. In addition to these, many students are unaware of the contact details for on-campus emergency services and national emergency numbers in Ghana. In critical situations, this lack of information could lead to wastage of precious time. To tackle these issues, the proposed app would be a comprehensive solution. It would feature functionalities like accurate weather forecasts by integrating with the Accuweather website for Berekuso forecasts, a meal plan balance checker linked with the Ashesi meal plan webpage, and a digital menu for campus eateries like Akornor and Big Ben. Additionally, the app would include a directory of contact details for Ashesi’s various services and emergency services, with the added convenience of calling these contacts directly from the app. This integration would ensure that all necessary information and services are readily accessible to students, thereby enhancing their university experience and safety. Pseudocode 1. When the app is started the homepage is displayed. 2. The homepage displays titles “Meal Plan,” “Weather,” “Ashesi Services,” “Food” and “Emergency Services.” 3. If “Meal Plan” is selected, the webpage of the Ashesi Meal plan is displayed. 4. If “Weather” is selected, the webpage for accuweather (set for Berekuso) is displayed. 5. If “Food” is selected restaurants in Ashesi are displayed. 6. Select any restaurant and their menu shall be displayed. 7. If “Ashesi Services” is selected a list of Ashesi Services are displayed. 8. Select any service and their contact details is displayed for calling . 9. If “Emergency Services” is selected a list of Emergency Services are displayed. 10. Select any emergency service and their contact details is displayed for calling . Figure 1: Flowchart * Due to the senstivity of some information within the app, kindly request for access. Upon access being granted, the links below shall be temporarily activated. Download APK via Github: https://github.com/akweix/Ash-App Download Android App via Thunkabale: https://x.thunkable.com/copy/b63301e1a6082169dd0d9aa036ac119d Previous Next

< Back Initial margin requirement for Derivative Trading A simplified VaR-based approach to calculate the initial margin requirement for Derivative Trading Previous Next

< Back How much time do I have left? - Version 2 Visualizing and Quantifying our most valuable asset: "Time"; Version 2 Previous Next